1.3.2 Differentiation between the three dimensions of strategic foresight
Three dimensions of strategic foresight
Short-term (Chermack 2011)
Duration: up to 2 years
Analysis: anticipating and forecasting developments and trends
Orientation: operational business plans
Focus: immediate challenges, opportunities and changes with a short-term impact on the business area
Characteristics: rapid success, operational efficiency, adaptation to immediate market conditions
Medium-term (Van der Heijden, 2011)
Duration: 2 to 5 years
Analysis: more comprehensive analysis of emerging trends
Orientation: Strategic plans
Focus: possible changes and potential disruptions in the market, in technology and in the general business environment
Characteristics: Balance to disruptive initiatives including changes in technology, market dynamics and organizational capabilities
Long-term (Rohrbeck, Gemünden, 2011)
Duration: over 5 years up to decades
Analysis: fundamental changes, trends and development of sustainable competitive advantages
Alignment: Strategy, vision
Focus: fundamental changes, megatrends, structural shifts in the industry and far-reaching social, technological and economic developments
Characteristics: Focus on major industry and societal trends, disruptive innovations and development of new capabilities