3.3 Gather Data and Drivers
How to gather Data – DIY approach
It is beneficial to develop an eye for the future, as it is never sudden and rarely unexpected.
You can acquire a “view of the future”, develop a Future Thinking style and consciously watch out for signals that indicate trends.
Signals are any development, idea or innovation that points to a future reality
→ can be found everywhere and are self-observable, especially in your own industry and environment.
If several signals can be combined or traced back to a single change, this is a trend.
Trends are a change that is observable and likely to continue over the next few years.
→ Examples of this in recent years are trends such as “multigraphy”, “hyper personalization” or “everything as a service”
Megatrends occur when several trends can be assigned to one another and belong together.
They are trend changes that are observed globally and have a half-life of 20-30 years.
Identified Megatrends
Use what’s already there
You don’t have to think about trends and megatrends yourself: Various organizations publish their findings on trends and megatrends with detailed documentation.
The Zukunftsinstitut’s megatrend map (2023), pictured right, is popular, but other institutions, governments or individual researchers and consultancy teams also publish their own selection.
See the glossary for details:
https://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/blog-megatrend-glossar
Transformations of the Future:System
The Future:Project
Future:Projects uses also Megatrends but breaks them down to six big transformations, which influence change:
- Human Digitality
- Conscious Economy
- Co-Society
- Mindshift Revolution
- Glocalisation
- Eco Transition
See for details: https://thefutureproject.de/system/
Gather Data → Databases and other resources
MegaStrat Tools and Applications
Existing trend studies and megatrends are a possible starting point. Typically, they are too high-level to derive situation-specific scenarios.
In order to incorporate detail data into scenarios (e.g. demographics, industry, resource quantities, etc.), it is worth taking a look at databases.
We have collected a list of possible Data Sources for you, available in mostly english, but also in other EU languages.