3.5.1 Scenario Writing Techniques
Create a Future Persona
The use of Personas is a user centered design methodology (Kohn et al., 2020).
It covers topics from interaction design within IT through to issues surrounding product design, communication, and marketing. Personas have been made popular by Design Thinking. The technique helps create a human-centric approach in formulating future scenarios as they follow an outside-in approach through collating research, trends, and data patterns as personas.
Future personas are fictional individuals living in a specifically envisioned future and are based on future trends and developments. The fictional character is intended to assist in understanding the future needs, behaviours, experiences, and goals.
Future personas take into account factors such as:
- Technology and tools
- Demographic changes
- Social trends
- Political developments
Imagine, who lives in your future scenarios? Do they live in every scenario you created, or do they handle them differently? Create up to three differing Personas, with name, age, interests, a career timeline and what they work on. What are their interests?
Future Personas are generated by either transposing present personas based on future trends or created from scenarios (Fergnani, 2020). With their cognition and behaviour, they embody the scenarios. They are the living essence of the future.
The Corresponding MegaStrat Method Future Persona helps you to ask the important questions about your future persona and provides templates.
Future Persona example
The Zukunftsinstitut made and shared this Persona Example (2023b)
For 46-year-old Marlene Gutleut, ecology and indulgence are no longer mutually exclusive – in the true spirit of the neo-ecology megatrend. She dreams of a healthy environment and an environmentally conscious world. Marlene is convinced that the economy can and must reorient itself to this vision. Health and social engagement also play a central role for this persona, and she strives towards this in her life with her two children.
You will reach this persona through an honest and comprehensive sustainability strategy. You can activate the eco-hedonist for your scenario by creating spaces of engagement and stand up with her for social and sustainable topics.
Scenario Writing Method “One day in the life of …”
One day in the life of …
Imagine your Workplace/firm/city in the future, and think about what a typical day would look like. Describe the day from start to finish.
What kind of things do they use? What technology is available and how does that change the daily life?
What do they need and what do they already have?
The Corresponding Tools and Application Worksheet helps you imagine a full day, and provides a template to fill out.
Using this Technique on the basis of a future persona helps, but is not necessary.
To get in depth knowledge of this Method, check out the MegaStrat Method:
Futures Wheel
To get in depth knowledge of this Method, check out the MegaStrat Method:
When you’ve identified relevant drivers, Signals and Megatrends relevant to your interests, a Futures Wheel have the purpose to basically testing the scenario logic and can be helpful in starting the process of thinking of consequences in a creative way.
In several rounds of structured brainstorming, a group develops different development paths that originate from an event or a trend.
Participants first discuss the conceivable first-order effects of a certain driver before moving onto second and third order consequences (mindtools, 2024).
The Corresponding Tools and Application Worksheet helps provides more information about this Method and Tool.
This is a creative, Group oriented method that takes at most a day and provides interesting results.
Test your Scenario
Similar to how a scenario is defined, there are some criteria with which to check your writing and work (Chermack, 2006).
Check for yourself, or have someone else proofread for:
Completeness
of a scenario refers to the detail of the drivers, outcomes, assumptions, and provision of relevant background information
Plausibility
of a scenario refers to the link between the drivers and outcomes in the scenario, as well as assumptions
Scenario context
refers to the current social, economic, legal, political context, as well as history. The more context are referred, the better
Coherence
of a scenario refers to the logical flow of the argument presented in the scenario
Order effects
refers to the identification of 2nd or 3rd order effects in the scenario