3.4.1 Scenario Development

5-Generic Stages in scenario development

Rounsevell and Metzger (2010) divided the scenario Development into 5 generic Stages:

Identify the
focal Question

Identify the
Key drivers

Determine the
Scenario Logic

Describe Scenario assumptions

Asses The
Scenario outcomes

Identify aims & define spatial and temporal system boundaries

Identify drivers & determine important and uncertain drivers

Define the framework within the assumptions are developed

Describe principles and assumptions with qualitative storylines

Assess the Implications or potential impact

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Strength: can be used in almost any environment; created scenarios may be compared
Limitations: knowledge gaps & incorrect information will reduce accuracy
When to use: as an initial guide for starters


Scenario Method after the european foresight platform

The european foresight platform (2024) has a similar approach to scenario development , which can be categorizes as more qualitative and predictive 

Identify the
focal Issue

Identify the aims and define spatial and temporal system boundaries

Identification and analysis of the drivers

Identify the drivers including STEEPV

Rank by importance
and uncertainties

Ranking of the driving forces on importance and uncertainty

Selecting the
scenario logics

Identify the axes along which the scenarios can be constructed

Fleshing out
the scenarios

Develop a number of internally consistent story lines

Implications
of scenarios

Link back to the decision focus of the first step & start to turn the scenarios into strategy

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Strengths: ranking reduces susceptibility to errors, STEEPV makes it comprehensive 
Limitations: takes more time than the method “5 generic stages”
When to Use: when a number of factors should be considered and the uncertainty is high


Cross Impact Analysis and Trend Impact Analysis

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Strengths: CIA can measure different variables in dependency to each other; TIA is using historical data with expectations  
Limitations: CIA depends on qualitative experts (subjective); TIA focuses solely on one trend
When to Use: Can be used both for cases with quantitative data (TIA) or qualitative data (CIA).


Six Pillars Process/Approach

The Six pillars Approach after Inayatullah (2008) consists of six pillars to think through to get to different scenarios. It can be categorized as a qualitative and exploratory method.

mapping

Understand the past, present, and potential futures to analyse trends and identify potential pathways

anticipation

Anticipate consequences and identify potential future trends, disruptions, and opportunities

timing

Recognize the critical moments where interventions or adaptations might be most effective in navigating future scenarios

deepening

Delve deeper into the underlying assumptions and values that influence potential futures

creating alternatives

Use scenarios to explore alternative futures

transforming

The possible futures are narrowed toward the preferred one. Here is where you take action

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Strengths: Framework for creating robust and actionable scenarios by following semi-structured steps, which focus on exploring alternative and preferred futures.
Limitation: Subjectivity and complexity of synthesising information in scenarios 
When to use: When a strong focus on transformation and action is given.


The Intuitive logic School

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The intuitive logic approach says that business decisions stem from a intricate interplay of economic, political, technological, social, resource, and environmental factors. While many of these factors lie beyond the company’s immediate control, understanding them is crucial for gaining insights and enhancing decision-making in areas like product development, venturing into new markets, expanding capacity, adopting new technologies, and devising business strategies. 

Strengths: ability to develop flexible, internally consistent scenarios from an intuitive, logical perspective. 
Needs: experienced scenario team both committed to the process and whose members hold credibility within the company. 
Limitations: not very quantitative, The approach relies strongly on the reputation and communication skills of the team members

To read up on the method itself, take a look at our sources: 


The French School “La Prospective”

“Focus of this School is the use of scenarios to construct positive images of the future or ‘scientific utopias’ and then specifying ways in which these could be brought about to improve the life of ordinary people.”

This Method is a 9-step process that is linear, but thrives from iteration and “demands a permanent interaction between the different modules and enough flexibility to optimize the analysis around new data and information” (Carvalho, 2023).

Seven Key Ideas (Godet, 1986):
  • to clarify present actions in the light of the future;
  • to explore multiple and uncertain futures
  • to adopt a global and systemic approach;
  • take into account qualitative factors and the strategies of actors
  • to remember always that information and forecasts are not neutral
  • to opt for a plurality and complementarity of approaches; and
  • to question preconceived ideas on forecasts and forecasters.

To get in depth knowledge of this Method, check out the MegaStrat Method:

Strength: highly qualitative, very positive outlook on the future, modularity and flexibility to multiple objects of analysis
Limitations: absence of neutrality in the prospective approach
When to use: able to handle bigger complex issues, used in forecasting for regions and whole technical sectors

To read up on the method itself, take a look at these sources: