1.2.1 What is strategic foresight?
What is strategic foresight?
“Strategic foresight refers to a systematic approach that supports organizations in systematically looking into the future, recognizing signals of change at an early stage and responding proactively.”
“Strategic foresight is a structured process to promote systematic thinking about the future, explore uncertainties and support organizational learning processes.”
“Strategic foresight is a systematic approach that goes beyond current expectations to examine plausible future developments. The aim is to determine political effects for the present.”
Strategic foresight @ MegaStrat
“Strategic foresight is a systematic process that enables organizations to identify changes and uncertainties at an early stage, respond proactively to challenges and opportunities and set long-term goals in order to strengthen their own competitiveness. It’s not a prediction is more like a preparation for a preferred future.
Definition based on Rohrbeck& Gemünden, 2010;
Van der Heijden, 2011; Chermack, 2011 & EC, n.d.
Megatrends @ MegaStrat
“Megatrends are long-term, far-reaching developments that last for several decades. They are omnipresent in all areas of society, including the economy, consumption, changing values, coexistence, the media and the political system. As global phenomena, they do not occur everywhere at the same time or to the same extent, but sooner or later they will be observable worldwide. The complexity of these trends is reflected in their multi-layered and multi-dimensional nature.”
Key Principles of strategic foresight
Environmental Scanning
Continuous monitoring of external environment to identify potential changes or trends
Scenario Planning
Developing multiple, plausible future scenarios based on identified trends and uncertainties
Visioning
Defining a compelling vision of the future for the organization
Strategy Development
Formulating strategies that are robust across different future scenarios
Implementation and Adaptation
Translating strategic plans into actionable initiatives and maintaining flexibility to adapt