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1.2.2 Difference between strategic foresight and other terms

Difference between strategic foresight and other terms

Strategic Foresight

FORECASTING
  • Focuses on quantitative data and extrapolating trends
  • Seeks to predict the most probable outcome based on past patterns
  • Considers a wider range of factors, including qualitative data and expert insights
  • Aims to develop a deeper understanding of the drivers of change and the various possible futures
  • Allows organizations to be more agile and adaptable in uncertainty
CONTINOUS FORESIGHT
  • Ongoing and iterative process
  • Regularly scans the environment for signals of change and opportunities for innovation
  • Proactive and ongoing effort to keep abreast of emerging trends and technologies
  • Structured and systematic process
  • Periodically engages in foresight activities
  • Used in response to specific events or strategic inflection points
FUTURE PLANNING
  • Develops a clear and specific vision of the future
  • Focuses on steps needed to achieve the desired future state
  • More prescriptive and focused on achieving a specific future state
  • Scans external environment for signals of change
  • Identifies emerging trends and potential disruptors
  • Explores multiple scenarios to inform strategic decision-making
  • Forward-looking approach to anticipate and prepare for different possible futures

Corporate foresight and Strategic foresight

  • Both approaches aim to help organizations navigate uncertainty and prepare for different contingencies.
    • Strategic foresight focuses on overall strategy and is led by top-level executives.
    • Corporate foresight focuses on specific business units or organizational functions.
  • Strategic foresight involves scanning the external environment for signals of change, identifying emerging trends and potential disruptors, and exploring multiple scenarios.
    • Corporate foresight involves a similar process but with a more targeted and tactical focus.
  • Strategic foresight is more top-down and strategic, while corporate foresight is more bottom-up and tactical.

Strategic foresight vs. Megatrends

  • Megatrends are long-term developments that are highly relevant to all areas of business and society and that are highly likely to emerge in the future.
    Strategic foresight identifies these future developments and trends in terms of their impact on organisations or companies.
  • Megatrends emerge when social, economic or technological phenomena or innovations move from niches to the centre of society, changing the entire mainstream.
  • Megatrends are diverse and complex, and their dynamics are cross-cutting, mutually reinforcing and interacting. 
  • Megatrends can cause market breakthroughs and disruptions, forcing industries to realign their structures and business models.
    It is important to distinguish relevant trends from avant-gardes, niche phenomena and small innovations, and to monitor their evolution.
  • Megatrends are a means to an end for companies to use their analysis and description to provide orientation and security in a VUCA world with points of contact and potential for innovation.
  • Megatrends provide a framework for strategic foresight, as they can set the context and direction for analysis and scenario development.
    The Megatrends Map provides a 360-degree view of these linkages, parallels, intersections and trend dynamics.

Strategic planning vs. Scenario development

Scenario building/development is the first part of strategic planning (Chermack, 2001)

Strategic planning is an iterative and creative process that serves to clarify an organization’s current and future goals, identify clear ways to achieve them and ensure the effective use of resources. This process emphasizes learning and adapting one’s organization to a changing environment.

Definition based on Bryson, 2018; Mitzberg et al., 2013

Scenario development is a proactive and systematic approach to strategic planning that aims to address uncertainties by creating and analyzing alternative futures. This enables organizations to prepare for various possible developments and improve their strategic decisions in the face of uncertain future scenarios.

Definition based on Schwarz, 2023; Chermack, 2011

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