Introduction to Long-Term foresight (LTOF) Principles
Definition and Significance of LTOF
- Strategic approach prioritizing long-term goals and sustainability over short-term gains
- Promotes sustainable growth, innovation, and competitive advantage in fast-paced business environment
Definition of LTOF Principles
- Strategic approach prioritizing long-term goals and sustainability
- Significant in fast-paced, short-term oriented business environment
Benefits of LTOF
- Improved risk management
- Stronger stakeholder relationships
- Enhanced brand reputation
Strategic foresight and Futures Thinking
Strategic approach prioritizing long-term goals and sustainability
- Improved risk management
- Stronger stakeholder relationships
- Enhanced brand reputation
Challenges in adopting a long-term focus
- Cultural resistance
- Pressure for immediate results
- Difficulties in forecasting future trends
Strategic foresight and futures thinking
- Allows for resilient strategy
- Identifies risks for mitigation
- Explores possibilities and pitfalls
Foresight Process Overview
What are some key steps and outputs in a strategic foresight process?
Environmental Scanning
- Collecting and analyzing information about the external environment
Scenario Planning
- Developing multiple plausible future scenarios
Visioning
- Creating a shared vision of the desired future
Strategy Development
- Formulating strategies to achieve the desired future
Implementation
- Implementing the strategies and monitoring progress
The Role of STEEP+V in foresight
STEEP+V is a key part of environmental scanning in strategic foresight
- Helps contextualize implications of future scenarios
STEEP+V stands for Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Values
- Provides additional point of view for reviewing signals, trends, and implications for the future
Helps become aware of connections across STEEP+V
- These connections are the foundation for shaping future scenarios
Important to consider STEEP+V factors when scanning for signals and working through implications
of scenarios
Identifying LTOF Opportunities and Challenges
Opportunities for applying LTOF principles
- Strategic planning
- R&D
- Corporate social responsibility initiatives
Challenges in adopting a long-term foresight
- Cultural resistance
- Pressure for immediate results
- Difficulties in forecasting future trends
Strategies for overcoming challenges
- Fostering a culture that values long-term thinking
- Educating stakeholders about the benefits of LTOF
- Incorporating flexibility into long-term planning
Various foresight models and methodologies
- Contain different steps
- May have different names and action steps
The foresight Process: Details
Varying levels of effort
Low
Does not necessarily require a team/can be accomplished by an individual, can be accomplished in a shorter duration of time.
Estimated time: ~1-5 hours
Medium
Requires a small team to complete the task, requires some stakeholder involvement, takes time to complete (more than a low-level activity and less than a high-level of effort).
Estimated time: ~5-10 hours
High
Requires a small team to complete the task, requires 1:1 stakeholder involvement, and requires significantly more time to complete.
Estimated time: 10+ hours