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4.2.1 Introduction to Long-Term foresight (LTOF) Principles

Introduction to Long-Term foresight (LTOF) Principles

Definition and Significance of LTOF
  • Strategic approach prioritizing long-term goals and sustainability over short-term gains
  • Promotes sustainable growth, innovation, and competitive advantage in fast-paced business environment
Definition of LTOF Principles
  • Strategic approach prioritizing long-term goals and sustainability
  • Significant in fast-paced, short-term oriented business environment
Benefits of LTOF
  • Improved risk management
  • Stronger stakeholder relationships
  • Enhanced brand reputation

Strategic foresight and Futures Thinking

Strategic approach prioritizing long-term goals and sustainability

  • Improved risk management
  • Stronger stakeholder relationships
  • Enhanced brand reputation

Challenges in adopting a long-term focus

  • Cultural resistance
  • Pressure for immediate results
  • Difficulties in forecasting future trends

Strategic foresight and futures thinking

  • Allows for resilient strategy
  • Identifies risks for mitigation
  • Explores possibilities and pitfalls

Foresight Process Overview

What are some key steps and outputs in a strategic foresight process?

Environmental Scanning

  • Collecting and analyzing information about the external environment

Scenario Planning

  • Developing multiple plausible future scenarios

Visioning

  • Creating a shared vision of the desired future

Strategy Development

  • Formulating strategies to achieve the desired future

Implementation

  • Implementing the strategies and monitoring progress

The Role of STEEP+V in foresight

STEEP+V is a key part of environmental scanning in strategic foresight

  • Helps contextualize implications of future scenarios

STEEP+V stands for Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Values

  • Provides additional point of view for reviewing signals, trends, and implications for the future

Helps become aware of connections across STEEP+V

  • These connections are the foundation for shaping future scenarios

Important to consider STEEP+V factors when scanning for signals and working through implications
of scenarios

Identifying LTOF Opportunities and Challenges

Opportunities for applying LTOF principles
  • Strategic planning
  • R&D
  • Corporate social responsibility initiatives
Challenges in adopting a long-term foresight
  • Cultural resistance
  • Pressure for immediate results
  • Difficulties in forecasting future trends
Strategies for overcoming challenges
  • Fostering a culture that values long-term thinking
  • Educating stakeholders about the benefits of LTOF
  • Incorporating flexibility into long-term planning
Various foresight models and methodologies
  • Contain different steps
  • May have different names and action steps

The foresight Process: Details

Varying levels of effort

Low

Does not necessarily require a team/can be accomplished by an individual, can be accomplished in a shorter duration of time.
Estimated time: ~1-5 hours

Medium

Requires a small team to complete the task, requires some stakeholder involvement, takes time to complete (more than a low-level activity and less than a high-level of effort).
Estimated time: ~5-10 hours

High

Requires a small team to complete the task, requires 1:1 stakeholder involvement, and requires significantly more time to complete.
Estimated time: 10+ hours