3.4.1 Scenario Development

Strength: can be used in almost any environment; created scenarios may be compared
Limitations: knowledge gaps & incorrect information will reduce accuracy
When to use: as an initial guide for starters

Strengths: ranking reduces susceptibility to errors, STEEPV makes it comprehensive 
Limitations: takes more time than the method “5 generic stages”
When to Use: when a number of factors should be considered and the uncertainty is high

Strengths: CIA can measure different variables in dependency to each other; TIA is using historical data with expectations  
Limitations: CIA depends on qualitative experts (subjective); TIA focuses solely on one trend
When to Use: Can be used both for cases with quantitative data (TIA) or qualitative data (CIA).

Strengths: Framework for creating robust and actionable scenarios by following semi-structured steps, which focus on exploring alternative and preferred futures.
Limitation: Subjectivity and complexity of synthesising information in scenarios 
When to use: When a strong focus on transformation and action is given.

The intuitive logic approach says that business decisions stem from a intricate interplay of economic, political, technological, social, resource, and environmental factors. While many of these factors lie beyond the company’s immediate control, understanding them is crucial for gaining insights and enhancing decision-making in areas like product development, venturing into new markets, expanding capacity, adopting new technologies, and devising business strategies. 

Strengths: ability to develop flexible, internally consistent scenarios from an intuitive, logical perspective. 
Needs: experienced scenario team both committed to the process and whose members hold credibility within the company. 
Limitations: not very quantitative, The approach relies strongly on the reputation and communication skills of the team members

To read up on the method itself, take a look at our sources: 

• Huss, W. & Honton, E. (1987). Scenario planning—What style should you use? Long Range Planning 
• Carvalho, P. (2023). SCENARIOS: LEARNING AND ACTING FROM THE FUTURE Part 3: Three Schools of Scenario Planning

“Focus of this School is the use of scenarios to construct positive images of the future or ‘scientific utopias’ and then specifying ways in which these could be brought about to improve the life of ordinary people.”

This Method is a 9-step process that is linear, but thrives from iteration and “demands a permanent interaction between the different modules and enough flexibility to optimize the analysis around new data and information” (Carvalho, 2023).

Seven Key Ideas (Godet, 1986):

• to clarify present actions in the light of the future;
• to explore multiple and uncertain futures
• to adopt a global and systemic approach;
• take into account qualitative factors and the strategies of actors
• to remember always that information and forecasts are not neutral
• to opt for a plurality and complementarity of approaches; and
• to question preconceived ideas on forecasts and forecasters.

Strength: highly qualitative, very positive outlook on the future, modularity and flexibility to multiple objects of analysis
Limitations: absence of neutrality in the prospective approach
When to use: able to handle bigger complex issues, used in forecasting for regions and whole technical sectors

To read up on the method itself, take a look at these sources: 

• IF Insight Foresight. (2023). SCENARIOS: LEARNING AND ACTING FROM THE FUTURE Part 3: Three Schools of Scenario Planning. 
• http://en.laprospective.fr/ 
• The Original Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0016328786900947