3.3.2 Trend Impact Analysis and Cross Impact Analysis

Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) uses historical Data and statistically projects it into the future while taking into account expectations about future events. It is based on the assumption that certain phenomena are likely to persist. Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) does not use historical data.

Qualitative expert opinions are used to  assign initial quantitative probabilities for trends and events in the future. The calculation of the ,,impact” is usually comupter-run, using a Monte Carlo simulation. There are multiple Programs available that offer this.
In TIA Trends and events are considered independent of each other so it focuses solely on one particular trend ( including all variables that might affect that trend), while in CIA the cross means that all trends and events related to an issue have to be taken into account, since they can collide and change each other in different ways.

These methods are considered a mixed approach of qualitative (expert opinions) and quantitative (statistical extrapolation) work.