3.3.1 5 generic stages in scenario development

Rounsevell and Metzger divided the Scenario Development into 5 generic Stages9 (click the title to see details):

Identify the focal question

Identify the aims of the scenario exercise and define spatial and temporal system boundaries

Identify key drivers

Identify the drivers that affect the focal questions, both directly and indirectly, and determine the most important and uncertain drivers

Determine the scenario logic

Define the framework within the scenario assumptions are developed, based on the most important drivers

Describe scenario assumptions

Describe the principles and assumptions for the alternative futures using qualitative scenario storylines and trends of the most important drivers

Asses scenario assumptions

Assess the Implications or potential impact of the scenario assumptions by either using qualitative storylines and images, or by developing quantitative scenarios based on numeric models