3.2.5 How is the set of scenarios structured?

Possible distinctions between scenarios in a set are

  • ‘more of the same’, ‘technological fix’, ‘edge of disaster’ and ‘sustainable development’ 5
  • scenario archetypes: continued growth, collapse, steady state and transformation (Dator 1979 nach Amer5)
  • Evolution and Progress, Collapse, Gaia, Globalism, Back to the Future 6
  • four variables:
    • best case (where the organization desires to move towards)
    • worst case (where everything goes bad)
    • outlier (a surprise future based on a disruptive emerging issue)
    • business as usual (no change)

A Cone is often used to show the different possible and plausible paths of the Future and Scenarios. It illustrated how differing plausible and possible Futures all stem from the same starting point.

Scenario-Set