3.2.4 How many scenarios in a set?

As said in the Defining Scenario section, a Scenario is never alone, there is always a set. Depending on the contents and the overarching question as well as time and other resources, different numbers of scenarios are possible. Experts5 recommend creating 3 or 4 scenarios.

Quantity Implications
1It will be the most likely scenario, though it is convenient for strategy formulation but one scenario will not yield any alternate future or future options
2Two scenarios are usually based on two extreme situations (optimistic and pessimistic scenarios) which are difficult to handle in the context of evaluation
3Recommended by many researchers but there is a risk of focusing on the middle (most likely) scenario
4Possible, good cost-benefit ratio
More than 5Possible, but cost of drafting and evaluating large number of scenarios will be very high and not justifiable