3.2.3 How do the scenarios answer my question(s)?

Scenarios and associated methods are categorized differently in the literature, answering different basic questions and approaching the future differently. 

A distinction is made between:7

  • predictive → What will happen? Forecasting likely future developments based on current trends, Future states based on data-driven predictions.
  • explorative → What can happen? Identifying a range of possible outcomes, fostering creativity, “What if” scenarios that explore a variety of potential futures.
  • normative → What should happen? Guiding vision, setting ideal goals, norma setting, Idealized scenarios where the focus is on what should happen.

Consider which approach would answer your future question the best?
Which would be most compelling, interesting or relevant to read for stakeholders?