Module 3: How to create good scenarios

Overview

Participants will acquire an in-depth understanding of foresight methods and tools, including scenario development and data-driven forecasting. They will examine the practical application of these tools, evaluate their suitability for specific contexts, and gain the ability to select and apply them effectively based on project objectives. Moreover, learners will develop the skills to construct coherent foresight scenarios grounded in identified trends and critically assess their feasibility and impact.

Learning objectives

  • Develop a thorough understanding of the methods and tools utilised in foresight practices, amongst others:
    • Define the concept of a scenario and grasp its role in trend research
    • Demonstrate an understanding of scenario development methods and tools employed in strategic foresight
    • Develop an understanding of how to integrate data-driven methodologies for forecasting future trends
  • Examine the practical application of different foresight tools in exploring future possibilities
  • Evaluate the suitability of different foresight tools for specific forecasting and decision-making contexts
  • Gain the ability to select and apply appropriate foresight tools based on the objectives of a given project or initiative
  • Develop plausible and coherent foresight scenarios based on identified trends.
  • Critically assess the feasibility and impact of different foresight scenarios.

Course Content

Expand All
Module 1: How to look into the future – Future Literacy
Module 2: How to analyse future research resulte – Potentials
Module 3: How to create good Scenarios
MODULE 4
Lesson Content
0% Complete 0/1 Steps
1 of 2

Methods, Tools and Cases

References

  • Amer, M., Daim, T. U. & Jetter, A. (2013). A review of scenario planning. Futures, 46, 23–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003
  • Bailey, J. (2024, 18. Mai). Rosa Und Weiße Kugelschreiber. https://www.pexels.com/de-de/foto/rosa-und-weisse-kugelschreiber-867482/
  • Balula, L. & Bina, O. (2013). Key References for Scenario Building. Unpublished. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/312266043_Key_References_for_Scenario_Building https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.21442.17609
  • Carvalho, P. (2023). SCENARIOS: LEARNING AND ACTING FROM THE FUTURE Part 3: Three Schools of Scenario Planning. https://www.ifforesight.com/post/scenarios-learning-and-acting-from-the-future-part-3-three-schools-of-scenario-planning
  • Chermack, T. J. (2006). Assessing the quality of scenarios in scenario planning. Futures Research Quarterly, 23–35. https://chermackscenarios.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/assessing-the-quality-of-scenarios-in-scenario-planning.pdf
  • European foresight Platform (Hrsg.). (2014). Scenario Method. http://foresight-platform.eu/community/forlearn/how-to-do-foresight/methods/scenario/ 
  • Fergnani, A. (1. Juni 2020). The End of Boilerplate Scenarios: Let Your Scenarios Come to Life with Future Personas. Predict. https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://medium.com/predict/the-end-of-boilerplate-scenarios-let-your-future-scenarios-come-to-life-with-future-personas-b939721faaf
  • Godet, M. (1986). Introduction to la prospective. Futures, 18(2), 134–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(86)90094-7
  • Inayatullah, S. (2008). Six pillars: futures thinking for transforming. foresight, 10(1), 4–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810855991
  • Kohn, S., Schembera, B. & Stelzer, B. (Hrsg.). (2020). The development of Future Personas for Design Thinking processes: The ISPIM Innovation Conference – Innovating in Times of Crisis. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/birgit-stelzer/publication/377330550_the_development_of_future_personas_for_design_thinking_processes/links/65a0736bbc30165e6e3433fd/the-development-of-future-personas-for-design-thinking-processes.pdf
  • mindtools (Hrsg.). (2024). The Futures Wheel: – Identifying Consequences of a Change. https://www.mindtools.com/a3w9aym/the-futures-wheel
  • Ogilvy, J. & Schwartz, P. (1998). Plotting Your Scenarios. In L. Fahey & R. M. Randall (Hrsg.), Learning from the future: Competitive foresight scenarios. Wiley.
  • Rounsevell, M. D. A. & Metzger, M. J. (2010). Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change assessment. WIREs Climate Change, 1(4), 606–619. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.63
  • Schaper-Rinkel, P. (2015). Antizipation von Zukunft zwischen Verwissenschaftlichung und Storytelling. In S. Azzouni, C. Reinhardt & S. Böschen (Hrsg.), Erzählung und Geltung: Wissenschaft zwischen Autorschaft und Autorität (1. Auflage, S. 363–384). Velbrück Wissenschaft. https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/bitstream/document/50703/1/ssoar-2015-schaper-rinkel-Antizipation_von_Zukunft_zwischen_Verwissenschaftlichung.pdf
  • Spaniol, M. J. & Rowland, N. J. (2019). Defining scenario. Futures & foresight Science, 1(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.3
  • Zukunftsinstitut. (2023a). Megatrend-Map. https://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/artikel/die-megatrend-map/
  • Zukunftsinstitut (Hrsg.). (2023b). Zukunftsinstitut auf LinkedIn: Die 5 Future Personas für nachhaltige digitale Transformation. https://de.linkedin.com/posts/zukunftsinstitut-gmbh_die-5-future-personas-f%C3%BCr-nachhaltige-digitale-activity-7003020179131494400-iaQL?utm_source=li_share&utm_content=feedcontent&utm_medium=g_dt_web&utm_campaign=copy