3.0 Module 3 Overview and References
How to create good Scenarios
In this MegaStrat module you will learn all about writing a good scenario. Scenarios are one of many methods (see Module 2 for a more comprehensive overview) to ‘see’ the future. First, you will develop a deep understanding of foresight methods and tools, enabling you to construct coherent foresight scenarios based on identified trends. You will then be able to critically assess the feasibility and impact of scenarios, based on two detailed methods of how to proceed and stage a scenario, and how to apply them to consider applicable case studies. This module will provide you with some one-page exercises and additional techniques to effectively select and apply foresight tools based on project objectives, or generally how to write or get ideas and a feel for your scenario.
You will learn…
- how scenarios are defined
- how to set the right framework before writing a scenario
- how to get Data and relevant drivers
- 2+ different Approaches to Writing scenarios and their Methods
- how to write good scenarios
Preparatory reading references:
A passing understanding of Module 2 is recommended, as it gives a overview of alternate methods for future foresight.
Already having answers to the Key Considerations for choosing a method of module 2 will help you write a good scenario.
Literature
Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G. & van der Heijden, K. (2005). The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures, 37(8), 795–812. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003
IF Insight foresight. (2023). SCENARIOS: LEARNING AND ACTING FROM THE FUTURE Part 3: Three Schools of Scenario Planning.
Extensive List of Methods, Approaches and Tools for Scenario Development
Additional Reading
Great overviews:
Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G. & van der Heijden, K. (2005). The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures, 37(8), 795–812. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003
Huss, W. & Honton, E. (1987). Scenario planning—What style should you use? Long Range Planning.
https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Scenario-planning%E2%80%94What-style-should-you-use-Huss-Honton/64b83d918a34dca562eaf35fd59c68b8e1c36dd6
Extensive List of Methods, Approaches and Tools for Scenario Development, each described:
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/14636680710727516/full/pdf?title=the-current-state-of-scenario-development-an-overview-of-techniques
Great introduction to what are scenarios, nice to read but not necessary:
Spaniol, M. J. & Rowland, N. J. (2019). Defining scenario. Futures & foresight Science, 1(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.3
The three “Schools of Scenario Development” explained
IF Insight foresight. (2023). SCENARIOS: LEARNING AND ACTING FROM THE FUTURE Part 3: Three Schools of Scenario Planning.
https://www.ifforesight.com/post/scenarios-learning-and-acting-from-the-future-part-3-three-schools-of-scenario-planning
Also interesting:
https://www.baks.bund.de/de/aktuelles/methoden-zur-strategischen-vorausschau-szenario-technik
http://foresight-platform.eu/community/forlearn/how-to-do-foresight/methods/scenario/
Resources and References
Amer, M., Daim, T. U. & Jetter, A. (2013). A review of scenario planning. Futures, 46, 23–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003
Bailey, J. (2024, 18. Mai). Rosa Und Weiße Kugelschreiber. https://www.pexels.com/de-de/foto/rosa-und-weisse-kugelschreiber-867482/
Balula, L. & Bina, O. (2013). Key References for Scenario Building. Unpublished. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/312266043_Key_References_for_Scenario_Building https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.21442.17609
Carvalho, P. (2023). SCENARIOS: LEARNING AND ACTING FROM THE FUTURE Part 3: Three Schools of Scenario Planning. https://www.ifforesight.com/post/scenarios-learning-and-acting-from-the-future-part-3-three-schools-of-scenario-planning
Chermack, T. J. (2006). Assessing the quality of scenarios in scenario planning. Futures Research Quarterly, 23–35. https://chermackscenarios.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/assessing-the-quality-of-scenarios-in-scenario-planning.pdf
European foresight Platform (Hrsg.). (2014). Scenario Method. http://foresight-platform.eu/community/forlearn/how-to-do-foresight/methods/scenario/
Fergnani, A. (1. Juni 2020). The End of Boilerplate Scenarios: Let Your Scenarios Come to Life with Future Personas. Predict. https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://medium.com/predict/the-end-of-boilerplate-scenarios-let-your-future-scenarios-come-to-life-with-future-personas-b939721faaf
Godet, M. (1986). Introduction to la prospective. Futures, 18(2), 134–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(86)90094-7
Inayatullah, S. (2008). Six pillars: futures thinking for transforming. foresight, 10(1), 4–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810855991