Previous Lesson

2.2 Types of methods and tools

Types of foresight Methods and Tools

Scenario Development

Purpose: Aims to define critical uncertainties and develop plausible future scenarios to discuss the impacts of potential developments and define responses to give.

Strengths: Uncertainty Management, Strategic Planning, Risk Assessment, Innovation and Creativity, Decision Support

Limitations: Subjectivity, Limited Predictive Power, Resource Intensive, Overemphasis on Plausibility

Types:

  • Classical scenario development
  • Field anomaly relaxation method
  • Matrix and Storylines – Approach
Scenario Simulation

Purpose: To interactively develop and explore selected future, often involving stakeholders.

Strengths: Engagement, Collaboration, Shared Understanding, Adaptability, Creativity

Limitations: Resource Intensive, Complexity, Bias and Power Dynamics, Limited Predictive Power, Resistance to Change

Types:

  • Classical scenario simulation
  • Design futuring
  • Science Fiction Prototyping
Delphi Study

Purpose: To identify a future development path or scenario by asking a panel of experts who need to reach a consensus.

Strengths: Participants can reflect and reconsider their views, Anonymity, Flexibility

Limitations: Expertise and diversity present within the panel, Time-consuming, Succumbing to group thinking, Resource-intensive

Type: online or expert workshop Delphi Study

Science Fiction Analysis

Purpose: To distill essential narratives about the far future from science fiction films and novels and using them as precursors or warning/weak signals for coming developments.

Strengths: Imaginative potential, Gives detailed descriptions of daily life, Anticipatory knowledge, Increase participation and discussion

Limitations: Potential biases, Challenges in extrapolating realistic futures from fictional narratives, Subjective analysis

Type: Analysis of

  • Science Fiction Novels 
  • Science Fiction Films
Assessment of Social Impact and Risk

Purpose: To understand the potential consequences and implications of actions, decisions, projects, or policies on society and individuals.

Strengths: Long term focus, Holding businesses accountable for their actions, Smarter investment choices

Limitations: Poor timing leads to incorrect inferences, Lack of system level integration, Lack of public trust, Data is unreliable and sometimes quickly out of date

Types:

  • Social Impact Assessment
  • Risk assessment
  • Weak signals/wild cards
  • Cross Impact Analysis
Assessment of the Impact of Emerging Technologies

Purpose: To determine the short- and long-term impact and risks of applying technologies, be that societal, economic, ethical, or legal. Information can then be used by decision makers to make the right choices.

Strengths: Informed decision-making, Anticipation of consequences

Limitations: Bias, Overestimating benefits and underestimating risks, Limited data, High likeliness of being wrong, Resource Intensive, Uncertainties

Types:

  • Technology assessment
  • 3-dimensional evaluation framework
Strategic Roadmapping

Purpose: Taking a vision into reality by planning how to achieve it.

Strengths: Gives an action plan, Detail oriented,  Holistic perspective

Limitations: Resource intensive, Complexity of the real world, Limited predictive power, Assumptions

Types:

  • Roadmapping (product, technology)
  • Relevance trees
  • Backcasting
Participatory Methods

Purpose: To actively involve stakeholders, including community members, experts, and decision-makers, in the process of future-oriented planning, decision-making, and problem-solving. 

Strengths: Speed of implementation and planning, Enhanced democratic processes, Increased probability of success

Limitations: Superficial analysis, Group effects and potential for process manipulation, Threatening to established power, Potential to create a new us-them polarity

Types:

  • Classical approach/ Introduction to participatory methods
  • Vision generation
  • Flash Fiction Stories
  • Creativity workshops
Complex System Analysis, Modelingu003c/strongu003e

Purpose: To understand, simulate, and predict the behavior of complex systems composed of interconnected and interdependent elements or agents.

Strengths: Holistic Understanding, Predictive Capability, Interdisciplinary Approach, Insight into Nonlinear Dynamics, Adaptability and Scalability

Limitations: Data Requirements, Sensitivity to Assumptions, Difficulty in Validation, Interpretation and Communication

Types:

  • Morphological analysis
  • Innovation system modelling