1.0 Module 1 Overview and References
How to look into the future
– Future Literacy
In this MegaStrat module, you will develop a fundamental understanding of Long-Term Opportunity Forecast (LTOF). You will learn to differentiate between short, medium, and long-term perspectives and understand the applications of LTOF. Additionally, you will address challenges in practical implementation and identify characteristics of organizations successfully applying LTOF principles.
you will learn to …
- understand the importance of long-term foresight in anticipating future trends and challenges
- differentiate between short-term, medium-term and long-term foresight
- realise the opportunities, consequences and effects of long-term foresight on companies and society
Preparatory reading references
Literature
Schwartz, P. (1996). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. Currency.
Marinković, M., Al‐Tabbaa, O., Khan, Z. & Wu, J. (2022). Corporate foresight: A systematic literature review and future research trajectories. Journal Of Business Research, 144, 289–311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2022.01.097
Schwarz, J. O. (2023). Strategic foresight. In Routledge eBooks. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003302735
Journal Articles
Rohrbeck, R. & Gemünden, H. G. (2011). Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technological Forecasting And Social Change, 78(2), 231–243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019
Schwarz, J. O., Ram, C. & Rohrbeck, R. (2019). Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics. Futures, 105, 133–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001
Trend report 2023: https://www.sap.com/documents/2022/12/d0698d19-557e-0010-bca6-c68f7e60039b.html
Blogs
Strategic Foresight: https://www.strategicforesight.es/
Institut für Trend- und Zukunftsforschung: https://www.zukunftpassiert.de/blog-1/
ImpactON Future: https://impact-on-future.com/ Futures platform: https://www.futuresplatform.com/blog/tag/Strategic+Foresight
Resources and References
Bryson, J. M. (2018). Strategic Planning for Public and Nonprofit Organizations: A Guide to Strengthening and Sustaining Organizational Achievement. John Wiley & Sons.
Cascade Strategy blog. (o. D.). https://www.cascade.app/blog
Chermack, T. J.; Lynham, S. A.; Ruona, W.E.A. (2001). A Review of Scenario Planning Literature. ResearchGate.
Chermack, T. J. (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: How to Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios. Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
Chermack, T. J. (2022). Using scenarios: Scenario Planning for Improving Organizations. Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
Megatrend Research: Die Methode der Trend- und Zukunftsforschung. (2024, 19. März). Zukunftsinstitut. https://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/zukunftsthemen/megatrend-research-wissenschaftliche-methode-trend-zukunftsforschung
Mintzberg, H., Lampel, J., Quinn, J. B. & Ghoshal, S. (2013). The strategy process: Concepts, Contexts, Cases. Pearson/Education.
Rohrbeck, R. (2010). Corporate foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm. Physica.
Rohrbeck, R. & Gemünden, H. G. (2011). Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technological Forecasting And Social Change, 78(2), 231–243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019
Schwartz, P. (1996). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. Currency.
Schwarz, J. O. (2023). Strategic foresight. In Routledge eBooks. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003302735
Van der Heijden, K. (2011). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. John Wiley & Sons.Wright, S. (2013). Converting Input to Insight: Organising for Intelligence-Based Competitive Advantage. In: Competitive Intelligence, Analysis and Strategy: Creating Organisational Agility, Routledge.